Oil Investment : Best Way To Invest In Oil

You've heard it many times : oil prices are falling. You see an opportunity there and therefore want to know what is the best way to invest in oil. We will see what affects the oil price and a few different ways you have to invest in oil before it goes up.

The barrel is below $40.

# What affects the oil price?

• Supply and Demand

This is basic. The more there are, the less it is valued. The U.S production has almost double over the past years, cutting importations, and therefore, Canada's and Venezuela's oil need to find a new home. Even falling economies like Russia's keep pumping oil into the market. Thousands lost their jobs and many economies like Venezuela's are collapsing (96% of its revenue comes from oil).

• China

China is essential to the oil industry. In May it surpassed the US as the world's largest importer. As the surplus in the market makes the barrel cheaper, add to that a slowing China and you'll get a very cheap oil. The bigger the economy, the harder to keep a steady growth, as you can see today.

• OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)

This club is made of rich oil countries and some, as Venezuela, want it to cut production so it can balance its budget and not lost a lot of money. On the other hand, countries like Saudi Arabia are refusing to do, in order to put the US production under pressure and gain some market share over the long term.

 # How to profit from it?

• Invest in a mutual oil fund like :
• Vanguard Energy Fund Investor Shares, which is a risky fund, investing up to 80% of its assets, but investors keep a higher percentage of their return. 
• Fidelity® Select Energy Portfolio. Even if the fee are above average, it has returned 5,69% over the past three years.

• Avoid emerging markets. As the chart above shows, emerging markets are in turmoil, from Brazil with its political and economic problems, to Russia with its ruble and oil prices falling.
• Invest in airlines. Oil takes a large chunk of their expenses.
• Simply, buy the barrel and sell it when it's at $150.

Municipal Bonds: Profit from It

Municipal bonds are good investments when a few factors are combined and others considered. As the Fed showed no willingness of raising interest rates in September, which may occur in December if we are lucky, the window of profitability of municipal bonds is getting smaller. But as we are not there yet, you may want to invest in it. Here are a few facts to consider.

#1 Raising Rates

As stated in our article about bonds funds, yields and interest rates goes in the opposite direction because new-issued bonds have a higher coupon and therefore are more attractive. If interest rates goes down, your old bond will have a higher coupon and therefore fewer people will be willing to buy it, which will make the value go up. This fact should be take into account every time we talk about bonds - be it federal, muni or corporate.
A few days ago, among investors, there was a 50/50% opinion that the Fed would rise interest rates in September. Today, it's 20/80%. It may rise in December but it is unlikely as it will take time to the Shanghai composite to be stable and China to send the right signs of confidence and recovery.

#2 Tax Exemption

The main factor that drives investors to municipal bonds is that they are free from local, state (if bought from an in-state issuer) and federal taxes. Sounds good, right? Not so fast. As some of these bond issuers can be insured to protect themselves, they triple A rating can be misleading. You have to be sure their rating is made from a outside entity and therefore is not merely a facade, because the value of the bond can go down with liabilities. If you're getting rich and want to retiree tomorrow, It must be said that tax-exemption is important when applying to Medicare Part B and Medicare Prescription Coverage because as you have a higher income you will pay a addition premium amount (the " income-related monthly adjustment amount "). Check this link to know more.

#3 Risks

First of all, there is a risk that you are paying things without knowing it. Your broker can be paid through a markup over the cost of the bond and they are not obligated to state you that fact before you have you confirmation. Make sure you ask them the cost. Secondly, calling risk, which is when the issuer repays before the maturity, default risk and liquidity risk have to be considered. Make sure you know well the issuer of the bond, so it won't be a Detroit or Puerto Rico.

Best Bond Funds Right Now

A few days ago the Fed sent unexpected signals to the markets, saying that the job recovery in America wasn't at the top and that there where concerns over China slowing economy, which today, are truer than never, as the market showed.

When the Fed does not rise rates, the bonds tend to gain attraction, as they are safer. Add China to the situation and you have got one of the few places where investors would put their money.

Bond funds may feel the pain of redemption, but they are nonetheless safer when the market does not know where to head. Therefore, here is a non-exhaustive list of bond funds.

BlackRock CoRI 2015 Fund

 The fund had a great year, returning 4,55% over the past year.

Fidelity Advisor® Total Bond Fund

Even if it has returned only 1,40%, this fund is so big, one can understand. Is has been flying low since June but after a re-calibration over the Fed, it should go higher.

Buffalo High Yield Fund

This fund returned 3,61% over the past year and if you'd invested 10k at the time, it would be near 20k today.

5 Dividend Funds Worth Your Money

As the Fed showed no sign of a willingness to raise rates anytime soon, and low interest rates elsewhere in the world are not going away, especially Europe, you may consider investing your money in a mutual funds that pays (high) dividends.

1. CPR Euro High Dividend P

The aim of the stock is to beat the MSCI EMU index in the long term by buying shares that pay high dividends. As the graph shows, it is succeeding. The fund has been above is benchmark since at least 2013 and it is mostly made of shares.

2. Schroder International Selection Fund European Dividend Maximiser

 The aim of the fund is to target European companies that have a high return.

3. SPDR^® S&P^® Euro Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF

The aim is to target high dividend-yielding companies within the Eurozone.

4. MSCI EUROPE UTILITIES INDEX (EUR)

The aim of the fun is "designed to capture the large and mid-cap segments across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe.”

5. Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund

 “The fund focuses on high-quality companies that have both the ability and the commitment to grow their dividends over time.”

Bond funds: Say What?

Bonding In

When you invest in a bond fund, you are investing in a basket of different bonds, which are payment promises of governments, corporations or municipalities in return of your money.

The par value (or face value or nominal value) correspond to the price of a bond when it was first issued, which are often $1000 or $100 for corporations and much higher for governments. If you buy it when it is issued, you are buying it at its par value, but its par value price will change thereafter in function of how the investors value your bond (the price will vary but your investment will stay the same, $1000). If you buy it later from an investors at a cheaper price, you are buying it at discount, or at premium if at a higher price. The par value determines how much you will get if you hold it until maturity, not matter the fluctuations of the market.

At its par value, your interest is determined by the coupon rate. For example, with a 10-year bond with a par value of $1000 and a coupon of 6%, you will receive $30 for 10 years twice a year as interest rates of individual bonds are often payed semiannually. Nevertheless, some bonds have a floating-rate, meaning that the interest rate will change along with the rate of some index. When the bond matures, you will get your principal (the initial investment you made), the face value of your bond, back.

The coupon rate is only meaningful when the bond is at its par value (when it is first issued). Afterwards, you must take in account the yield of the bond, which is the rate of returns based on the current price of the bond in the secondary market (between investors; see below).

What drives bonds up and down, among others, is the interest rate determined by the Federal Reserve. When the interest rate goes up, the value of your bond goes down. Why? Because new issued bonds have a greater coupon rate, therefore investors want them instead of your bond. Your bond will therefore be trading at discount. When the interest rate goes down, your bond value would be trading at premium (> par value) because new-issued bonds would have less value.

As the image above from Bloomberg shows, a 10-year bond of the U.S.A government has a coupon rate of 2% and a yield of 2, 21%.

CURRENT YIELD = (ANNUAL INTEREST * 100) / PRICE

The zero coupon rate bonds does not pay annual interests. Instead, those kind of bonds are issued at discount to be redeemed at par. You make money from the difference par price/maturity.

The yield shows the return you have on your bond in the secondary market.

Mutual Change

Things are a bit different with bond funds.

The lender of the money receives often monthly payments (instead of semiannually payments of individual bonds, as stated above) from the income earned by the fund. The bonds of a bond fund have different maturity dates, in order to keep the income coming at a regular pace. The fund manager, someone highly educated, replaces then the old bonds with new ones (when the issuer pays off the bond, for example). Therefore, there is no certainty that you will get your principal back (as the manager does not wait to sell the bond at maturity). As a golden rule in finance, asset allocation is what bond funds are about, therefore the returns should be greater, especially with high-yield bond funds.

Contrary to individual bonds, you can easily sell your assets, which unfortunately may cause a snow-ball effect (see next title). Bond funds have a large number of charges to cover marketing expenses, management fees, and they are not obligated by law to disclose all of them. You have to be sure of all the costs involved before stepping in a bond fund.

The Fear Factor

When the Fed pushes the interest up, you may want to sell your bond quickly, which is a bad idea because your manager, in order to keep the yield high, will sell the highest-earnings bonds of the fund in order to avoid further losses (as a bond fund is made of hundreds of different bonds) and compromise with redemption (which is the yield the mutual fund promise its investors). Even if you keep your bonds and wait to the storm to pass, you will feel it because the manager may cut dividends. At the end, you will earn less and your bonds will value less.

In a bear market for stocks, investors willing to protect their assets invest in sure securities like the U.S.A Treasury bonds, which have very little default risk. As scarcity is élémentaire in finance, as there is less bonds available, the prices will go up. If prices go up, the yield of your bond will fall.

Game of Interests

The Fed showed no sign this month of a willingness of raising interest rates, mainly because of concerns over China's slowing economy and the fact that the US job market is not yet "fully recovered". The US bonds were higher seconds after the leaked announce. It is still a great time to invest in mutual fund bonds, even higher yielding mutual fund bonds, before the Fed pushes rates higher.